Sport
Surprisingly, baseball has recently become very popular among Russian-speaking bettors. Total is one of the most popular bets in this sport. But the wrong approach to the analysis of events leads to frequent losses and resentment of users that bets on baseball games lead to constant failures.
Baseball is one of the most unpredictable sports. Here, in the overwhelming majority of cases, even outsiders have high odds for them. But a competent analysis of the selected match allows you to bet on its effectiveness in perspective.
Content
- How to bet on total?
- Description of the strategy
- Total less bets
- Total over bets
- Summing up
How to bet on total?
The mistake of many lies in one thing: they simply look at the results of extreme matches, the results of head-to-head meetings and, on the basis of this alone, conduct an analysis, make a decision and choose an option doomed to lose in advance. A certain percentage of such bets will lead to success, but at a distance such a player will go to a big disadvantage. All these results are well seen by the analysts of the offices. But the odds in the line for total are set according to a number of important parameters and data.
When analyzing a match, in order to bet on its effectiveness, first of all, you should pay attention to the three most important points:
- Pitcher's indicators – the player throwing the ball: with a strong, top-ranked, pitcher, “TM” passes more often;
- Better's indicators – hitting the ball thrown by the pitcher: with a strong, top, better, the performance increases sharply, with a weak one – decreases;
- The characteristics of the field, where there are two main types: hitters park, which has a smaller size, which leads to “TB”, and pitchers park, they are more likely to suggest low performance.
It is these points that the user should study in the first place, where there are a lot of options. For example, the match takes place in hitters park, both teams have weak pitchers and powerful betters, all of which presupposes high performance. But all this is perfectly calculated by the analysts of the offices, setting extremely competent quotes in a line. Although it is worth admitting that sometimes bookmakers make mistakes, they can only be detected by someone who conducts a qualitative analysis.
How to competently and thoroughly study the characteristics of throwing and hitting players is described in detail in a separate review. The author strongly recommends reading it. If this is not done, then there is no point in reading further below the following material
This note may seem a little complicated, but if you read it slowly and deliberately, then everything will become clear. This can really help in the future to correctly analyze any baseball game, which greatly increases the likelihood of winning.
Having studied the three points described above, it will not be superfluous to study the rest of the information: the results of the last matches, head-to-head meetings, players' injuries, the expected weather, relations within the teams, etc.
Description of the strategy
Having figured out how to analyze the selected matches, it is worth moving on to specific theories of the game in terms of performance, where we remember that bookmaker analysts do not make mistakes so often. In such a situation, it is worth remembering what was said at the very beginning – many users conduct a superficial analysis, often making losing bets. This suggests one thing – it is necessary to play competently against strong loads, which violates the imbalance of the odds in the line correctly placed by the bookmaker's analysts.
For example, one of the clubs, at the expense of its pitcher, did not allow rivals to score many points, while not demonstrating high performance itself. Everyone sees such a situation and it is banal to put down “total less” in the next confrontation of this team. But the experienced bettor saw during the analysis that the main pitcher would not be able to participate, and the substitutes were too mediocre. And the opponent has a good better. All this will make it possible to play promisingly in counter-movement to loading at an unjustifiably high coefficient. These are the situations to look for in baseball.
Total less bets
The strategy is based on three points:
- Competent analysis;
- Search for the error of the bookmaker's analysts and the rate on it;
- The rate is against an unreasonably strong load.
It is important to know that experienced bettors do not recommend betting on “total under 7.0” or “ТМ 7.5”, since many matches, even where high performance is not expected, end with a score of 4: 3, 5: 3, etc.
This is a match between the usual MLB middle peasant and one of the leaders of the championship, where the score is 0: 9. Matches of this nature attract the increased attention of experienced bettors, where the leader of the championship is fighting with a complete outsider or an ordinary average peasant and there is an opportunity to bet on an “individual total less” than an outsider. Such an account is possible for several reasons. Among the championship leaders there are clearly some of the best pitchers. Among the outsiders and ordinary middle peasants, there are usually betters with average characteristics.
Here one of the MLB leaders came to visit a complete outsider, and in two matches in a row it was possible to successfully bet on the ITM Miami Marlins.
The Los Angeles Dodgers' main shooter has an ERA of 2.65. This is not the best indicator, but in the presence of weak hitters from the opponent, it allows you to achieve excellent results. The “ERA” indicator of the throwing hosts is much worse, which in the presence of strong hitters of the guests led to high performance on their part.
If the leader's pitchers and hitters are in good shape, then the outsider is doomed.
It is worth remembering the results presented above, in the following we will consider one most curious and useful moment for betting.
Within the framework of “TM”, it remains to consider another curious situation in the framework of Major League Baseball, where teams often hold three meetings in a row in a short period on the same field. This situation allows you to sometimes successfully use the bookmaker's mistake and the incorrect loading of users at the same time, which provides a high win.
Here it is worth noting how the first two face-to-face meetings ended in frankly high performance. All this was clearly seen by young users and amicably loaded “total more”, thinking that in the third match in a row the opponents would please the fans with an effective game. But in the end, in the third head-to-head duel in a row, only 8 points were scored in total, where on “TM 9.0” BC 1xStavka gave a coefficient in the region of 1.8.
The considered case is one of the laws of Major League Baseball: if the first two matches of the three full-time series of two teams each time ended with a pronounced high or low performance, in the third match it is worth betting on the opposite outcome. In this case, the bookmaker's analysts make a mistake, overestimating the coefficients on “TM” in advance. Increases quotes for low performance and incorrect loading on the part of a huge army of young users who like to place bets only on the results of the last played matches.
Total over bets
When betting on high performance, you can also successfully use the above pattern.
In the first two face-to-face meetings in a row, low performance was observed, this literally forced bookmaker analysts to overestimate the odds on “TB”, and many users actively downloaded “TM”. As a result, we see how the third face-to-face meeting ended with a score of 7: 6, where it stood in the region of 2.4 on “TB 9.0”.
Now let's return to the case that was recommended to be remembered just above, when one of the championship leaders defeated a complete outsider twice on the road. Now it's worth taking a look at the full picture.
In the first two head-to-head confrontations, the Miami Marlins suffered two major defeats, earning only one point each. In the third game, on the basis of off-scale motivation, the outsider showed high performance, gaining 13 points outright. It is in such situations, when after especially major home defeats the outsider's motivation goes off scale in a terrible way, you can safely bet on his “ITB”.
More baseball betting strategies can be found in a separate review.
Summing up
Although baseball is one of the most unpredictable sports, it also has its own working patterns that allow you to make promising bets at unreasonably high odds.
