Sports betting training
Having a desire to bet on sports, not always, and not every bettor can decide on what to make competent, point bets that are optimal in terms of risk and chances of winning. In today's post, we will tell you how to compare teams before making a bet and make a choice more easily and confidently.
Content
- How do you compare teams?
- Last played matches
- Results of face-to-face meetings
- Last matches on the field to be played
- Meeting place
- Weather
- Optimal composition
- Match motivation
- Team atmosphere
- The strength of the coaching staff
- Time of the match
- Match status
- News and press about the match
- Team budgets
- Composition cost
- Team physical form
- The possibility of sensation
- Processing of results
- Calculation example
- Conclusion
How do you compare teams?
To compare teams before a match, you need to compare them on a number of parameters.
Last played matches
If there are a lot of recently played matches, then it will be enough to analyze a segment of 5-10 games. View teams' matches, results, assess the level of opponents. If there are few or no recent matches, then we evaluate the last previous results. The longer the team played, the less informative the indicator.
Results of face-to-face meetings
We compare teams in their personal meetings. The most valuable are the recent “duels”: played in the current season and the previous one.
Last matches on the field to be played
Those. analyzing the latest results of the home team and the away team away. For example, the hosts played well on the whole recent matches, but things are not going well at home. This needs to be paid close attention.
Meeting place
The city and the stadium where the match will be played are very important. For example, the Bolivian national team plays in a high-altitude arena, where the air is thin. The hosts are used to it, but the guests are not easy. Those. due to the peculiarities of the stadium, the hosts get a tangible advantage.
Another example is the fierce support of the hosts in Turkey. It is very difficult for foreign teams visiting Turkish teams to play, because the guests are under very serious pressure from the stands.
Weather
Rain, fog, extreme heat, wind – all these are serious factors that can be familiar to one team, and very much interfere with another. For example, in European competitions a team from the north of Europe comes to the south, where the heat is +35, to which the northerners are not accustomed. It will be very difficult for guests to play in such a situation.
Optimal composition
One of the most important factors. If one or more leaders are absent in the squad, the overall team level will inevitably decrease. It is important to keep track of the squad, the presence of injured players, players who have recently recovered from injuries. Their level of play after treatment will be far from ideal.
Match motivation
Another important factor. Even a grand can lose to an outsider trivially because the favorite does not need a match, and the outsider came to the game as a match of life and death. For example, the favorite won the championship ahead of schedule, and the outsider fights for survival and throws all his strength into battle.
Team atmosphere
It is important to try to learn the news from the teams' camps regarding the atmosphere. In particular, study the latest interviews with players and coaches, team leaders. You need to find out if everything is good in the team in terms of budget, fulfillment of contractual obligations, mood, relationships, relations between the team and its fans.
The strength of the coaching staff
A very important parameter. It often happens that in terms of composition, budget, names, the favorite is one team, but in terms of the shown game it is another, and the powerful coaching staff is to blame. A strong coach with a weak squad can outplay a powerful squad with a less experienced mentor.
Time of the match
A less important parameter, but in some cases it can play a larger role. For example, a match is played at a time that is very unusual for one of the teams. In such a situation, it can be difficult to show your best performance.
Match status
In a friendly match or tournament, teams can play completely unpredictable, because the result is not too important. In the official meeting, the teams give all their best and show their best qualities.
News and press about the match
In the news, you can find information that can have a significant impact on the rate. For example, statements from players, coaches, fans, critics, specialists, team leaders.
Team budgets
If there is an opportunity to find the budgets of the teams, then it will be very cool. Although money doesn't play football, a richer team has better opportunities in everything: recruiting, preparation, treatment, recovery, training. Accordingly, the richer team has a higher chance of winning in the overwhelming majority of cases.
Composition cost
Another important financial aspect. The more expensive team has more skilled performers who are able to solve episodes in favor of their team.
Team physical form
A more emaciated and tired team may play poorly or give up during the match. For example, one team plays in a more busy schedule, does not have time to fully rest and recover, while the other was calmly resting and had enough time to rest and recover. A more recent team will look more advantageous and have a good chance of success.
The possibility of sensation
In a meeting where there is a favorite (there is almost always a favorite in the match, but often it is not pronounced) and an outsider, a sensation can happen. Before betting on a three-way, a handicap or a double chance, you need to carefully assess the likelihood of a sensation. Part of the combination of the above factors slightly tilts the scales towards the underdog, and sometimes a very strong one factor (overwhelming motivation, a change of coach, an excellent form of an outsider).
Processing of results
Let us summarize and present all the above factors in terms of the degree of strength of the influence exerted on the result of the match. The most weighty factors will be estimated at 3, the least important – 1. The results will be presented in the form of a table.
| Factor | Impact on the result |
| Previous matches | 3 |
| Face-to-face meetings | 3 |
| Matches on the corresponding field | 2 |
| Location of the match | 2 |
| Weather on match day | 1 |
| Optimal composition | 3 |
| Motivation | 3 |
| Team atmosphere | 2 |
| The strength and experience of the coaching staff | 3 |
| Time of the match | 1 |
| Match status | 3 |
| News and press about the match | 1 |
| Team budgets | 2 |
| Composition cost | 2 |
| Physical form | 2 |
| The possibility of sensation | 2 |
In total, the most important factors, the assessment and analysis of which should be paid close attention to when preparing for a bet, are:
- Previous matches;
- Face-to-face meetings;
- Optimal line-up, summary of injured players;
- Motivation for the match;
- The strength of the coaching staff;
- Match status.
The rest of the factors are also important, you should not lose sight of them, but still they have a slightly smaller impact on the result.
I would also like to discuss the sensation factor in a separate line. Sometimes painstaking preparation for a bet can go to waste simply because the likelihood of a match not developing according to the scenario is not taken into account. As a rule, a sensation portends something: a lack of mood in the favorite, or its weak form, or overestimated corresponding parameters in an outsider.
Practice your analytics, study teams, results, stats, and your betting skill level is bound to go uphill.
Calculation example
The results obtained above can be used as an additional factor in preparing for the bets, or you can compare the two teams for each item. For example, we compare teams by the strength of the coaching staff, by the last matches. The team that has the advantage is given 1 point, its opponent – 0. The team that scores more points based on the comparison on all 16 points potentially has more chances of winning, or at least not losing.
For a better understanding of how to compare teams, let's look at the comparison factors using an example of a real match.
Consider the English Premier League game Liverpool – Chelsea on 22/07/2020. Line for the match: W1 – 2.05, X – 3.82, W2 – 3.74.
| Factor | Weight | Liverpool | Chelsea |
| Previous matches | 3 | 0 | 1 * 3 = 3 |
| Face-to-face meetings | 3 | 1 * 3 = 3 | 0 |
| Matches on the corresponding field | 2 | 1 * 2 = 2 | 0 |
| Location of the match | 2 | 0 | 2 * 1 = 2 |
| Weather on match day | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Optimal composition | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Motivation | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Team atmosphere | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| The strength and experience of the coaching staff | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Time of the match | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Match status | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| News and press about the match | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Team budgets | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Composition cost | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Physical form | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| The possibility of sensation | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 25 | 25 | |
In total, there was complete equality – both teams scored 25 points. From this we can conclude that the rivals are potentially equal, and Liverpool's favorite status is due to playing at home as champion. Based on our analysis and the results of recent face-to-face meetings, we can assume that the game will end in a draw.
Conclusion
Despite the rather large detail of the command comparison table, you should not blindly believe these statistics, because sports matches can be as unpredictable as possible, sometimes additional factors can intervene (removal in one of the teams, referee errors, etc.), which ultimately will have a decisive influence on the result. However, by comparing the teams and checking the result with the bookmaker's line, you can bet on the line (if the calculations coincided with the line, and the favorite was confirmed), or against the line (if the result obtained does not agree with what the bookmakers offer). Practice your analytics and hone your betting skills.
