For beginners
In athletes, as early as childhood, they form a pathological aversion to defeat. It doesn't matter what kind of sport it is – football, tennis, chess, gymnastics or darts. Nobody likes to lose.
Has anyone thought about how the fear of failure in sports can be used in betting?
I am sure many have witnessed how the losing side became more active in a football match closer to the final whistle. For example, even up to the 85th minute, the attacks could develop systematically, but in the final segment the team threw all their efforts to at least equalize the score. The possible loss forced the players to act more actively and show more perseverance.
It is obvious and quite logical that players and teams are able to achieve better results if there is a lot at stake, but not everything is so simple
A high level of fear and anxiety indicates inner tension and insecurity. These feelings affect the quality and result of performing various tasks. Studies of the relationship between fear and sports performance are controversial. Some argue that anxiety reduces results. In others, it has been argued that increased levels of fear are one source of motivation.
Fear really motivates and activates athletes, but to a certain level. Excessive anxiety interferes with successful performance (Yerkes-Dodson law). Therefore, in some cases, the fear of failure will be a positive factor, while in others it will be negative.
Content
- Golf exploration
- How to use fear of loss in betting?
- Summary
Golf exploration
Two American sports journalists studied the PGA Tour and found that steam hit rates were higher (80%) than birdies (30%).
Par is the number of strokes a golfer must hit on one hole, or all holes, until the end of the game. If the player has spent more hits (more than a pair), his result will acquire a “+” sign, if less – “-“
Birdie is the standard for hits on a hole, which is one less than its par. Those. if the par allows 3 hits on this hole, for the birdie you need to roll the ball into the hole in 2 attempts
It is impractical to compare strokes directly, since in the first case the golfer takes a more advantageous position. The journalists took this nuance into account and found that the probability of hitting a hole with a pair is 3.7% higher than during a birdie.
Missing birdies gives the golfer a chance for the ultimate success, as opposed to missing in a pair. Fear could be the reason for the improvement in results at a crucial moment.
How to use fear of loss in betting?
The theory outlined above speaks of the influence of the fear of defeat on the activity and, accordingly, the result. But how to use the information in practice?
At the beginning of the article, it was mentioned that in football, the losing side is more active in the attack, and the team that is in the lead goes to the defense in order to maintain the advantage. More often than not, it does not matter with what difference to win in the score, while there is a difference of 2 points between the minimum win and a draw.
It is required to watch the match in order to choose the appropriate outcome for the bet
In sports, an element of chance is not excluded. For example, between “Roma” and “Spice” there is a significant difference in class, but due to mistakes and a generally poor defensive play, the favorite will miss three times. At the expense of the class, it was possible to recoup.
In the last minute of regular time, the outsider equalized the score. As expected, Roma ran forward to recoup. The Romans translated the difference in level into success.
Seeing how Spice scored, you would bet in Roma's favor (win or team goals).
There are many similar examples in football, including unsuccessful ones. Sometimes the underdog restrains the onslaught of the opponent, and sometimes, he himself differs in the counterattack.
The task is precisely to select such events where in the last 10-20 minutes, the team with superiority in class and an advantage in the current match will certainly begin to make more active attempts to score the ball
In such a case, it is advisable to consider the following markets for the bet:
- The total total is higher in the whole match;
- Individual total over the attacking team;
- Not a loss (1X / X2) or a zero handicap on the team that is trying to recoup;
- The victory of the favorite, for whom it is important to score 3 points, in case of a draw in the game.
The first option is the safest, because even with an unexpected scenario (an outsider's goal), the bet will work. The rest of the outcomes are more risky, but the quotes can be noticeably higher.
It is advisable to avoid bets when the difference in the score is 2 or more goals. Again, this is a general guideline that applies to most events, but not everyone.
When betting on return matches of the playoffs and cup tournaments, start from the result of the first meeting. When the score is 3: 0 in favor of the hosts, one goal may be enough for guests to go further. Naturally, they will not give up, although they are very inferior, but will run to score.
You can learn more about this approach to betting in the “Wagering a Favorite” strategy.
Summary
The influence of fear is one of the psychological aspects that should be considered when making a forecast. And not only in football. In tennis and other individual disciplines, there is much more space for live bets on an athlete who will do everything possible not to lose.
When the athlete is at the last stage, the chances of a more successful result are higher. It is important that a person is psychologically prepared, since there are those who are only hindered by increased responsibility.
Fear of defeat is just one of the factors that must be taken into account in conjunction with other points: mood, game form, lineups, psychological characteristics (there are players / teams who simply do not know how to snatch victories, but give up prematurely).
What kind of fear can we talk about when there is no motivation? The team is not afraid to lose, which means it will not prevent attempts to rectify the situation.
Take a comprehensive approach to forecasting, study as much information as possible and take into account all sorts of nuances, but start only from significant and basic factors.
