Football Betting
Football collects the largest cash flows in bookmakers, totaling hundreds of billions of dollars worldwide. For this reason, sports betting has received increased attention. How to properly analyze a match and select a promising bet option on its basis? Not always the result of analytical work may be a formalized rate in a bookmaker. But this does not mean that the analysis of the game was carried out in vain, its conclusions may be needed in the future.
Content
- Match Analysis Factors
- Potential of rivals
- Current game level
- Play style
- Team composition
- Motivation to fight
- Face-to-face history
- Psychological climate in the team
- Characteristics of the judge
- Field and weather conditions
- Miscellaneous
- Summing up
Match Analysis Factors
Many bettors place bets in the office without any analysis. They periodically manage to place a whole series of winning bets based on intuition. Subsequently, some of these users begin to deny the usefulness of the analysis in the world network, they say, and without it, you can earn money.
But, it should be understood that, making a bet without preliminary analysis of the game, you can only be in the black on a short distance of 1-2 weeks. Whereas bets made on the basis of analytical work generate income over the long haul: 6 months, a year, etc.
Confrontation analysis points:
- Potential of rivals;
- The current level of the game;
- Play style;
- Composition of teams;
- Motivation to fight;
- The history of face-to-face meetings;
- The psychological climate in the team;
- Characteristics of the judge;
- Field conditions and weather conditions;
- Miscellaneous.
Now we will analyze each point in detail.
Potential of rivals
Studying the potentials of teams is important if you want to start betting on an unfamiliar championship, before the start of the season and after a long break of 1-2 months (many championships go on long winter holidays).
There are several ways to unleash your potential.
Photo source: transfermarkt.ru
This is information on the clubs of the major league of Romania. Here you can see the cost of teams, their average age, the number of legionnaires. Money does not always reflect the strength of a sports team. But they show that the first three clubs with a budget exceeding $ 20 million will be the main contenders for the championship medals.
The next stage is a detailed study of the composition.
Photo source: transfermarkt.ru
It is important to study from what time the players have been playing – this indicates the coherence of the team.
We need to disassemble the transfer company. Detailed information displayed in a convenient format is uploaded to FlashScore (resource review)
Here you can see who came, which players left the club. This will clarify 2 questions:
- FC management managed to preserve the backbone of the team – if a lot of strong players left, then this task did not work out;
- The arrival of some players strengthened the club.
But it is not always clear at what level the player strengthened the club. This is not difficult to do.
Such detailed information can be obtained for each player. The screenshot shows that 28-year-old defender Andrei Burca is playing for the Romanian national team. If you study his characteristics further, it will be seen that he played actively in European competitions and has been playing in the top league of Romania for a long time.
It is important to study the characteristics of the head coach: the style of play, past jobs and achievements in them, the ability to work with young players (develop them), the ability to influence the course of the meeting through emotional conversation during the break and substitutions.
This detailed study of the teams will allow you to understand their potential.
The Transfermarkt resource can help in the analysis of team lineups, an overview and instructions for working with which we have selected especially for you.
Current game level
Potential is an important characteristic. But it doesn't say anything if the team is in deep crisis.
A championship leader experiencing serious problems in the game may lose to a weak middle peasant who is at his peak
The current level will be revealed by the last 5-6 matches. But the result does not always carry objective information. The club can lose in the confrontation, where it has played enough for a landslide victory. Therefore, it is necessary to study each match in detail, understanding the reasons for its result:
- Statistical indicators;
- xG parameter;
- Team lineups;
- Video review of the match or text broadcast.
This is a general statistic, it reveals the nature of the struggle. Here you can see that Real Madrid had more possession of the ball, Getafe more often shot on goal. By such parameters, it might seem that, on the whole, a goalless draw is a fair result. But it's worth taking a look at the xG parameter of this match.
Photo source: understat.com
The parameter xG takes into account each kick to the side and the goal and assesses the degree of its danger.
According to statistics, Getafe's xG is 2.19 – in total, all the shots of the hosts should have resulted in two goals scored. Real Madrid had fewer dangerous moments and the studied parameter is 0.62. This indicator shows that Getafe should have won with a score of 2: 0 or 2: 1. And this is objective data reflecting the real course of the meeting. You can watch the video review of the match or read the text broadcast and there you will see that Real Madrid played really badly.
From this information, one might think that Real is in crisis, which will lead to a mistake. Therefore, it is important to understand the reasons for such a game of the top club. And this can be done in two ways:
- The composition of the team for the game;
- Club calendar.
It is worth noting that before the meeting with Getafe, the royal team played with three tops from 6 to 14 April. For 8 days the club played 3 most difficult matches with the prefix “successfully”. Such games took a lot of strength and the coaching staff was forced to rotate in the confrontation with Getafe, which will be seen if you study the composition of Real Madrid. The reasons for the weak play with the middle peasant became clear. They prove that Real did not go into a game crisis.
If a club has shown poor results for several matches and there are no objective reasons for this, as was the case with Real, it means that such a team is in crisis.
It is important to understand why the team has achieved a positive result. After all, many, seeing that Getafe had played a draw with Real Madrid and could have won altogether, thought that the middle peasant had gained a powerful move and reached the peak of his form. But such success is the reason for the objectively weak performance of the top team, and not for the powerful football of Getafe.
Play style
There are 3 styles of play:
- Defensive;
- Attacking;
- Combined.
Some teams at home place more emphasis on attack, while away – on tight defense. There are enough teams that, at home and away, rely only on defense or attack.
In a defensive style, the following game patterns are used: 5-3-2, 5-4-1, 4-3-2-1.
Attacking Styles: 4-3-3, 4-4-2.
It is especially important to look at the home and away performance statistics separately.
Photo source: 24Score
According to the presented results, it can be seen that Verona is betting on tight defense at home, which leads to low performance. The results of the last 3 home rounds hint at the team's game crisis, but for the accuracy of the conclusion, it is necessary to study each game in detail.
More features of the game schemes of teams and bets in accordance with them can be found in a separate material.
Team composition
In the Getafe – Real Madrid match, we have already touched on the importance of the squad for the game. It shows that the top club played poorly due to the rotation. The footballers of the second squad who entered the field significantly reduced the team's playing potential.
Therefore, it is important to study:
- Injuries and illnesses of players;
- Disqualifications;
- Other reasons for the absence of important players.
Two common situations can be simulated:
- For a sharply attacking club, due to injuries and disqualifications, 2 main attackers and an attacking midfielder will not be able to take part in the match;
- A team that relies on tight low defense will be missing 2 main center-backs and a defensive midfielder.
In both cases, such losses are a big blow to the level of the team and the tactics of the game. Taking into account such losses, the sharply attacking team will be forced to shift the emphasis to high defense, which will affect the effectiveness of the meeting. It is worth imagining what mistake a bettor would have made by betting on TB, not knowing about the team's losses indicated above.
Motivation to fight
A strong club with weak motivation can lose to a weak opponent, whose emotions are simply simmering. A number of factors influence team motivation:
- Standing position – in a meeting of two equal opponents, the bias in motivation will be in favor of the one who is significantly lower in the standings;
- Loss in the last full-time game;
- Second home round in a row when the previous one was lost;
- The defeat in the last confrontation: here it is necessary to take into account when the team plays after the defeat: after 3-4 days – the players did not have time to psychologically move away and in the overwhelming majority of cases another failure follows, 6 days or more – the players manage to “digest” the failure and with high emotions go to the field;
- A major success in the last match: for example, the middle peasant won the national cup, giving a lot of energy there, and the next game in 3-4 days, the players will not have time to recover their psychological strength by this meeting, they have “gorged” on football, emotions will be weak;
- Departure from the tournament (Champions League, Europa League, late stages of the National Cup) – this greatly diminishes the emotions of the players for the next game;
- The leader won the championship ahead of schedule, the middle peasant kept his residence in the top league a few rounds before the end of the season or was 100% relegated to the lower division – weak motivation to fight;
- The fight for the coach respected by the team, who is threatened with resignation.
There are much more situations that affect the motivation of football players, only the most popular ones are indicated above.
Face-to-face history
It makes no sense to study the results of face-to-face confrontations 10 years ago. During this time, the entire coaching staff and the composition of the players often change. In-person meetings of the past and the current season should be taken into account. This will allow you to understand their nature:
- Effectiveness;
- Rudeness and adherence to principles;
- Home and away team results.
Special attention is given to the derby of two approximately equal teams, for example, Inter and Milan, Lazio and Roma, Real Madrid and Atletico, etc.
If a club loses both matches of the season in a derby to an equal opponent, for such a team the football year is considered a failure. If the team that lost in the first meeting is not in a game crisis, it is worth playing on their side in the second confrontation of the season
Psychological climate in the team
When a conflict situation has arisen in the club between the head coach and the team leaders, this always leads to a sharp decrease in the level of play. Such information is always leaked to the media. If you find it, you must immediately bet against the club where there is a conflict situation. If the team acts as a well-coordinated single mechanism, it is better to play on its side.
Photo source: 24Score
At the end of the season, Zidane managed to rally his charges. Real Madrid loudly announced in the media that they will go out to each match as to the last fight. As a result, the top team completed a series of victories and won the championship.
Characteristics of the judge
It is important to be able to correlate the characteristics of the judge and the characteristics of the teams.
Photo source: 24Score
Such information fully reveals the characteristics of each referee. It can be used to understand the severity and loyalty of the judge. First comes Paul Tierney, the strictest referee with an average of 4.1 yellow cards. The most “kind”, loyal is Kevin Friend (located last in the table). He shows an average of 2.3 LCDs per match.
It is worth imagining how many cards there will be if:
- A strict referee will control the meeting of two rough teams;
- A loyal referee judges the match between two non-rude teams.
For each club there is information how many yellow and red cards it receives on average and in each round separately.
Fulham and Sheffield United received the most LCDs in the Premier League in the 2020-2021 season, while Liverpool and Manchester City received less than others.
The match “Liverpool – Manchester City” was controlled by not the most strict referee, showing an average of 3.1 LCD per match. As a result, 3 yellow cards were shown in this confrontation. It was promising to put LCD on TM. This variant of the bet was played.
Field and weather conditions
The performance of the match drops dramatically:
- Terrible quality football field – typical for the championships of countries with weak economies in early spring and late autumn;
- Heavy rain and snowfall – the fight goes on until the first goal, the one who managed to score goes to the defense with large forces, it is difficult to recoup in such conditions.
Read more about the weather factor in sports betting in a separate review.
Miscellaneous
Additionally, you can study:
- Player interviews, which can reveal the procedure for preparing for the confrontation;
- Important events in the life of a coach, team leaders, club management, which can affect motivation;
- Expert forecasts, where more attention should be paid to insider information;
- Selected statistics.
The last point includes different options.
From this information, you can understand the nature of the team's play throughout the match. Here you can see that Burnley likes to start powerfully, trying to score an early goal. Leicester and Newcastle are both strong at the end of the tie, scoring most of their goals.
You can learn more about strategies for betting on statistics in a separate article.
Summing up
It is impossible to cover all the smallest details of the analysis of a football match in one review. But the general procedure is understandable. It will allow you to conduct a deep, high-quality analysis and, on the basis of this, choose a promising betting option. Over time, when many features of the championships and clubs are known, the time for analytical work will be greatly reduced.
