Sports betting training
All sporting events can be conditionally divided into two types: a match of approximately equal opponents and a confrontation between a favorite and an outsider. Many more often bet on favorites, because it is psychologically easier to play this way. There are also enough users who actively bet on outsiders and discourage them from playing on the side of the match leader, they say, it will be difficult to get a good plus at a distance in such a situation.
But, you need to bet on everyone when the opportunity comes. Our task is to figure out in what cases it is profitable to bet on favorites, where success directly depends on the ability to recognize the types of leaders of the match. Each type of favorites requires a special approach.
See also: what is the bookmaker's margin and how to calculate it
Content
- A real favorite
- Loaded
- Skewed
- Underappreciated
- Hidden
- Summing up
A real favorite
The main rule of any experienced bettor is never to rely on the bookmaker's odds. A bettor must, based on his own analysis, in his imagination put up approximate quotes for the victories of his opponents, subsequently comparing them with the numbers offered in the line. If the odds of the bookmaker coincided with the bettor's numbers, then the favorite of the match turned out to be real.
It is possible to bet on the leader's victory in such cases, but it is not entirely profitable at a distance. Why? The answer to this question can be obtained by reading the material on choosing a match for a bet, where it is revealed what an edge over margin is.
Loaded
When the majority of bettors start to place bets on the leader's victory, the coefficient on his success gradually decreases – such a favorite is called loaded.
“Lille”, as one of the leaders of the French championship, was an open favorite of the confrontation, taking on one of the outsiders of the championship at the home arena. Initially, Lille had a coefficient of 1.5. The bettors were betting on the hosts' victory so actively that the odds dropped to 1.33. “Lille” in this case is a classic loaded favorite.
In such a situation, in no case should you bet on heavily loaded favorites at once for two reasons:
- Bookmaker analysts initially underestimate the odds for the victory of the clear leader of the match;
- Due to the fact that bettors are loading the victoria of a strong club, the quotes for its victoria are going down even more, and they generally cease to reflect the real balance of power.
It makes no sense to bet on this type of favorites, at a distance this will lead to the loss of the entire bank
Skewed
When a bookmaker makes a mistake in the analysis and incorrectly sets quotes for one of the betting options – this is called a bias, the coefficient does not reflect the real balance of power. It is imbalances that experienced bettors are actively looking for, which allows them to play promisingly at an unreasonably high odds.
In the framework of low-rating events, bookmaker analysts often make mistakes, setting incorrect quotes for the victories of the tournament leaders, especially when they play away
Underappreciated
Often, young bettors are strongly influenced by the results of recent matches, sometimes believing that it is possible to play against the leader of the meeting. They begin to actively bet on the outsider, thereby greatly increasing the coefficient on the victory of the favorite, which belongs to the group of “undervalued”.
The users showed strong distrust of Blackburn, the success of which the bookmakers initially set 1.67. As a result, the victory of the guests was so heavily loaded that before the game itself it was possible to bet on “W1” at 1.94 and the bet was played. Blackburn is thus an “underrated” leader.
It is necessary to carefully study the reasons for the latest failures of leaders or bright successes of outsiders, it is they that lead to the indicated phenomenon in betting. Sometimes the failures of a strong team are not related to its game crisis, but occur due to objective reasons: removal of a player, referee's mistake, coaching miscalculation, weak motivation, etc. Bright victories of outsiders can also happen not because of a sharp increase in the quality of play of a weak team, but because of one of the above factors, which played in the favor of the team.
See also: how to bet on a favorite in football
Hidden
This is the hardest kind of favorites in the match. Only experienced players can find it. There are enough matches where, for various reasons, there is a coefficient for the victory of the favorite, which is no different from his opponent's set for victoria or even higher. This is common in the low-ranked tournaments of all team sports.
Top analysts are assigned to popular tournaments. And for several low-ranking championships, one analyst is often appointed, and sometimes not of the highest level. He does not always have time to track all the information on one of the weakly popular championships, which is why he can make the favorite a small outsider of the meeting.
There are plenty of hidden favorites in long-term winner bets.
Read also: Features of betting on favorites in basketball and hockey favorites
Summing up
The types of leaders studied above can be divided into two main subgroups:
- Real and loaded – it is not recommended to place bets on them, there is no excess over the margin;
- Skewed, underestimated and hidden – it is imperative to bet, there is an edge over the margin.
It would seem that everything is easy and simple, you need to find the last group of favorites and make promising bets on high quotes. Only experienced bettors who know how to correctly and efficiently carry out the analysis can do this.
