Football Betting
From March to June, almost all world football was paralyzed due to the coronavirus epidemic. Top leagues and championships were interrupted in mid-March and only resumed in mid-June. During the downtime, the balance of power, results, surroundings and much more have undergone changes. On the eve of the 2020/2021 football season, we will tell you about the most significant changes that have occurred in the TOP-5 leagues in Europe, as well as in the Russian Premier League.
Content
- General changes in world football
- Italy (Serie A)
- Spain (La Liga)
- England (Premier League)
- Germany (Bundesliga)
- France (Ligue 1)
- Russia (RPL)
- Conclusion
General changes in world football
Due to the epidemiological situation, problems with the composition of many teams (sick and injured), as well as a tighter competitive schedule and an increased likelihood of injuries for players (2 games per week), UEFA allowed teams to make 5 substitutions in a match (previously it was allowed to change only 3 players).
This innovation has led to an increase in the duration of matches. In summer, 5-8 minutes were usually added to the main time of the 2nd half (3-5 minutes were usually compensated before the break).
Italy (Serie A)
Serie A in March was interrupted at around 26 rounds. Only 3.5 months later, the championship resumed. There were no global movements in the table for 12 post-quarantine rounds, except that Milan and Sassuolo added a lot, and Juventus, on the contrary, played out slipshod, having lost more games in 12 final matches of the championship than in the first 26 …
It should be noted that in the first six rounds after the resumption of the Italian championship, the number of red cards in matches increased sharply.
This was largely due to the fact that the teams were not in good shape, after the break, the teams and the players were in different shape, which led to an increase in violations.
As for the league's performance – after the continuation of the championship in June, it increased. If before the pause in the middle round of the championship, 28-33 goals were scored, then from the 26th to the 34th round the teams' performance jumped sharply: in each round at least 30 goals were scored from this interval, and sometimes 37-40 goals. In the final rounds, the performance slightly decreased, which is again associated with a decrease in the number of red cards (from rounds 31 to 38, no more than one card per round, with the exception of the final round). Also, the teams got back in shape towards the end of the season. It is also one of the factors behind the decrease in abnormally scoring games.
Also, after the break, the number of matches in which TB 2.5 broke through increased. If before March there were on average 5-7 such games, then after the break – 6-8.
Recommendations for betting for the 2020/21 season
If the coronavirus trends continue (5 substitutions, empty stands), then football will not differ much from what we saw at the end of the 2019/2020 season. Those. We recommend you look closely at the bets on TB 2.5-3.0 matches of teams that score and miss a lot. This is especially true for Atalanta, Roma, Inter, Sampdoria. Juventus plays very strongly at home, we recommend betting on his victories at home or a victory with a handicap of 0 or a minus handicap.
Spain (La Liga)
In the Spanish La Liga, the teams were interrupted on March 10, the championship resumed on June 11, i.e. the downtime was exactly 3 months – a long time. In the Spanish league, there was a global reshuffle. The most important of them is the weak-willed loss of the championship by Barcelona. The Catalans, after 27 rounds, were in the lead in the championship, having a 2 point advantage over Real Madrid, and at the end of the championship they finished second in 5 points behind their sworn rival. Barcelona's performance dropped sharply in the summer, the team began to allow one after one the most annoying misfires in matches where it was not permissible to do so. The apotheosis was the home defeat 1: 2 from the modest “Osasuna”.
Compounding the comical nature of this loss was the fact that the opponent played part of the match in the minority. Also, Getafe lost its position significantly: before the break, the team was in 4th place and claimed the Champions League, but very poorly finished the championship and finished only in 8th place. But after a pause, Real added a lot, almost perfectly covered the distance of 11 rounds and deservedly won the championship.
Recommendations for betting for the 2020/21 season
In Barcelona, a global restructuring is planned, for several seasons in a row there has been a stagnation of the team. Certainly there will be a big reshaping of the composition. In view of this, at least in the first half of the season, failures and instability are possible. We recommend betting against Barcelona: on the victory of the opponents, on their not losing and a positive handicap. At the same time, Sevilla and Real Madrid finished the 2019/2020 season excellently, we should expect a confident game from them, we suggest betting on their victory and a head start.
England (Premier League)
In the English Premier League, the teams managed to play 29 rounds until mid-March. Downtime was 3.5 months. This pause greatly benefited Manchester United, which after 29 rounds was in 5th place, eight points behind the 3rd place, and in the end finished in the same third place with an impressive finishing spurt. But “Leicester” failed the ending of the championship: the team began to squander from about the middle of the season. As a result, the club dropped from the 3rd position to the 5th and was left without the Champions League. The rest of the teams remained roughly theirs. Separately, it is necessary to mention about the disastrous season for London “Arsenal”: the English superclub continues to slide into the middle peasants. In the 2019/2020 season, Mikela Arteta's team finished in a shameful 8th place, and so far there are no prerequisites for something to change globally for the better in the new season.
The league's performance in the summer has slightly increased compared to the first part of the season. If in the spring in the average round of the Premier League 24-26 goals were scored, then in the summer it was already about 27 on average per game. In several rounds, the average performance of the matches was very high at all – 3.3-3.4 goals per game on average. In many ways, this was facilitated by the very effective game of the giants at the finish line of the championship: Liverpool, clubs from Manchester, Chelsea. The English teams conducted the final rounds of the championship with surprising discipline: only 9 red cards in 9 rounds, no more than two penalties per round.
Recommendations for betting for the 2020/21 season
Manchester United added great at the end of the 2019/2020 season, the team in the next season of the Premier League can add even more, as part of a lot of promising young people who have already matured. It will be difficult for Liverpool to stay at the top for 2 seasons in a row, yet the same Manchester United, Man City, Chelsea are not asleep. But it will be difficult for Arsenal again: there is no squad that could solve big problems in the Premier League. Although the team will still be a sure favorite in many games for their past merits, it is better to bet against them, as well as on TB 2.5-3.0 in their matches and on goals from rivals Arsenal. We also recommend betting on long-distance total goals in Manchester City matches: this team is good at long distances, they often play matches like 7: 1, 6: 2.
Germany (Bundesliga)
The German Bundesliga was the first major championship to emerge from its forced hibernation. The pause was just over 2 months. But even during these 2 months there have been significant changes in the results and effectiveness. The first thing that caught my eye was a very low percentage of home winners.
If before the break in the championship in March in each round the hosts won an average of 4 matches, then after the break – only 2.7 matches. If it were not for the super clubs (Bayern, Borussia, Leipzig), the hosts' victories would have been much less. And in the first 6 rounds after the resumption of the season, the hosts won only 1-2 matches (there were 3 victories in one round). The lack of home support had a very strong impact on the German teams, so the guests began to gain much more points.
As for the movements of the teams in the table, after the break, Schalke collapsed: from 6th to 12th place – this is one of the most serious movements of teams in Europe after the quarantine. As for the rest, everyone remained approximately with their own people, the five leaders did not undergo any changes at all.
Recommendations for betting for the 2020/21 season
With good financial resources and line-up, Schalke has been disappointing for several seasons in a row. We offer to bet against him, because there are no big prerequisites for improving the situation yet. Bayern, Dortmund and Leipzig are likely to be soloists in the championship again, these teams are losing few points. We recommend betting on their victories and goals, individual total. However, it is worth noting that for 2 seasons in a row Bayern starts the season weakly, but adds very strongly during the season and wins the championship. Also, the team has a streak of more than 20 wins, it should be interrupted soon. At the beginning of the Bundesliga season, we recommend betting against Bayern, after about the 10th round – on their victories.
France (Ligue 1)
The French Ligue 1 did not resume after the break. In March, the tournament was interrupted at around 28 rounds. The teams did not finish 10 rounds. PSG became the champion of the tournament ahead of schedule. The Parisians, by the way, reached the Champions League final in the same 2019/2020 season for the first time in their history.
Recommendations for betting for the 2020/21 season
In the French Ligue 1, no team is yet visible that could compete with PSG. Once again, this club must win the championship with a margin. PSG plays excellently at home, scores a lot and concedes a little. Accordingly, we propose to take a closer look at the bets on the victory of PSG with a minus handicap (-1) – (- 2) in home matches, on TM of individual totals of the opposing teams in matches with PSG.
A very nice team came to Lyon. The squad reached the Champions League semi-finals, which is a huge success for any member of Ligue 1 except PSG. In the new season, the team may well take at least 2nd place, even impose the struggle of PSG in the fight for the championship (if Neymar leaves PSG). The percentage of Lyon's points should increase, so we recommend betting on the team: win, win with 0 handicap, with a minus handicap in matches with outsiders.
Russia (RPL)
In the Russian championship, the forced downtime was 3 months. The end of the championship was overshadowed by several factors that do not at all color the league, which is in the TOP-8 of the strongest in Europe.
In the first round after the resumption of the championship in the Sochi – Rostov match, many leaders did not play with the guests due to the outbreak of the coronavirus. As a result, young people under the age of 20 entered the field as part of the team. And many players were only 17 years old. The result of the match turned out to be predictably deplorable – 10: 1 in favor of Sochi, although with optimal line-ups Rostov would have been the favorite of the match, and such an account is simply impossible.
Several teams decided not to play matches at the end of the season, for which they were credited with a forfeit defeat. In particular, these were Orenburg and Sochi.
The tournament alignment after the quarantine practically did not change, most of the teams remained in their positions, and the rare movements turned out to be insignificant. Legendary and wealthy teams, Dynamo Moscow and Spartak, spent another nondescript season.
Recommendations for betting for the 2020/21 season
RPL season 2020/21 has already started. So far, everything is going about the same as it was in the last championship: Zenit at the head of the table, head and shoulders above everyone else, practically does not lose points. Lokomotiv, CSKA, Krasnodar are slightly lower, but they have problems from time to time. Newcomers to the elite are struggling to survive.
We recommend betting on Zenit's victory this season, their individual total is more than 1-1.5. Also in this championship, it looks like Spartak can perform well. The roster was preserved, the team got used to the coach's demands and went through the preseason with him. It is worth taking a closer look at the bets on Spartak: TB 2.0-2.5 in matches with effective teams, clear victories of Spartak in matches with outsiders and with a handicap of 0 in games with more serious opponents.
But CSKA, it seems, will be storming again, it will be incredibly difficult for the team to climb above 3-4 places, they can lose points in harmless situations. We recommend betting against CSKA, especially if there are prerequisites (they play poorly in head-to-head matches with an opponent).
Conclusion
The coronavirus outbreak has left its mark on world and European football. Due to a three-month pause, the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 seasons are separated by a small interval of 1-2 months, and in some leagues and tournaments there is no pause at all. For example, the new Champions League season 2020/2021 started earlier than the previous one – a unique phenomenon. Therefore, all the features and changes that have occurred with the teams and championships at the end of the 2019/2020 season can be taken into account when analyzing the starting next football season.
