In the considered five strategies for betting on tennis in live, the outcome for the bet is selected based on certain patterns and odds. No analysis is provided, although this does not mean that you cannot implement it additionally.
The bottom line is to find suitable events and situations and place a bet on a particular outcome.
None of the algorithms guarantee earnings. The information is presented for informational purposes only. Perhaps the review will lead you to interesting thoughts, you will pick something up for yourself, test it and implement it into your game, increasing efficiency
Content
- Positive handicap for an outsider in a 5-set match
- Positive handicap on the favorite
- Positive outsider handicap
- Positive handicap in fights of equal opponents
- Total under 10.5 in the third set
- Summary
Positive handicap for an outsider in a 5-set match
Matches:
- Exclusively bouts of Grand Slam tournaments;
- There is a favorite (odds of 1.5 and below);
- In total, the first and the second game, the favorite must take with an advantage of at least 8 points (6: 2, 6: 2; 6: 1, 6: 2; 6: 0, 6: 2, etc.)
More bets are made in favor of the leader. Bookmakers are forced to adjust the line, so a bet is made on the handicap of an outsider:
- +4.5 (when the pre-match quote for the favorite's success is below 1.3);
- +3.5 (if the odds before the start of the fight to win the favorite is higher than 1.3).
The coefficients that were before the start of the fight determine the approximate difference between the opponents.
Rationale: after two confident games, the leader plays more for fun, relaxes a little, saves energy (especially in the first rounds of the tournament). The losing side has nothing to lose. The athlete will show everything that he can, because he will hold the last set in the competition
Difficulty: minimum suitable fights
Positive handicap on the favorite
Required matches:
- All games of men;
- Highly rated women's tournaments;
- The presence of a favorite (odds for the athlete's triumph – 1.6 or less);
- The favorite must lose in the first set with a significant difference (6: 0, 6: 1, 6: 2).
Pre-match favorite, becomes an outsider in the second set. That is why a handicap with a plus sign is drawn up on it – 2.5, rarely 3.5. Take your time with the deal. The player may have health problems and take a medical time out. In this case, the event is skipped. If the meeting has resumed, you can bet. This also applies to the rest of the algorithms that are discussed in the material.
Opinion: it is a mistake to believe that if the bookmaker has identified a favorite before the start of the confrontation, then this tennis player is really stronger, performs better on the surface, is in optimal shape. Bookmakers also make mistakes. Better to watch the broadcast and understand the reasons for the failed set. True, for this you need to understand tennis.
Positive outsider handicap
Suitable events:
- The presence of a favorite (odds for winning before the start of the match – 1.5 and below);
- Loss of the underdog in the first set 6: 0 or 6: 1 (borderline situation – 6: 2);
- The surface of the court is clay and hard (grass last).
It is necessary to follow the line, namely, the handicap for equiprobable outcomes. That is, for positive and negative values, for which the bookmaker has set approximately the same quotes (the difference is no more than 0.3). For example, 1.93-1.93, 1.95-1.87, 1.77-2.05, and so on. Let's say the value for the handicap (-2.5) in favor of the favorite in the first set is 1.92, and for the handicap +2.5 outsider – 1.89. If this condition is not met, the fight is skipped.
In the second set, you need to bet on the underdog's positive handicap (based on the results of the set), but add +1 to the handicap. If in the first game the handicap was +2.5, then now bet on +3.5.
What is the algorithm based on? Bookmaker analysts determine the probabilities as accurately as possible. Suppose that if the office with quotes says that the probability of the favorite's success in the starting set with a difference of 2.5 points is about 50%, then it is so.
After a confident triumph of the favorite, bets continue to be made on him, so the line is corrected (odds for the leader's minus handicap decrease, and for the outsider's plus handicap it increases). In addition, after the victory, the favorite can relax, and the underdog – to get together and impose a fight, because another unsuccessful set, and the meeting will be lost.
Opinion: Bookmakers are wrong; an outsider after a defeat can swim and will not keep a positive handicap in the second game, which, according to the author's observations, happens regularly
Positive handicap in fights of equal opponents
What kind of meetings are suitable:
- If one of the tennis players wins odds of at least 1.7 (quotes are approximately equal – 1.95-1.85, 1.92-1.92, 1.8-2, etc.);
- Priority is men;
- Hard and ground – perfect;
- In the first game, one of the players wins a convincing victory (6: 0, 6: 1 or 6: 2).
The rationale for the algorithm is the same as in the previous case. That is, most of the bets are placed in favor of the leader, which is why the bookmaker is forced to adjust the line.
The bet is on a positive handicap of the athlete in the second set, who lost at the beginning – most often +2.5 is taken, a little less often +3.5 (the minimum odds are 1.5). It is believed that a positive handicap is a good deal, since the bookmaker initially gave the same score to the odds of the opponents.
I managed to find an example only in a low-ranking tournament. Better to consider high-level competitions as well as Masters 1000, 500 and 250.
Disadvantages: equal opponents are assessed by the coefficients, and not by the current form, psychological state, peculiarities of playing on the surface and other factors; very few suitable matches (for the day, you can not find a single event)
Total under 10.5 in the third set
What events are appropriate? All women's competitions and men's fights on slow courts (clay).
In the third batch on the ground, physical readiness comes to the fore, the influence of fatigue increases. Because of this, the third set is less likely to be very effective.
Conditions under which the bet is made. The first and second set must be played at 10.5 TB (games), there must be a tie-break (ideally two) and a minimum of 6 break points. Suitable accounts:
- 7: 6, 6: 7;
- 7: 5, 5: 7;
- 6: 7, 7: 5 and mirrored.
You can find out information on a statistical service, for example, FlashScore (but not for all tournaments).
In the third set, with a score of 1: 1, a bet is placed on TM 10.5 (the minimum coefficient is 1.5). Bet no later than the end of the fourth game (2: 2 – ceiling). If the result is 3: 2/2: 3, don't play anymore. It is better to skip the event and save money than to deviate from the strategy and play it is not clear what. In rare cases, it is possible to catch the total under 12.5.
Difficulty: there are few suitable events, you need to simultaneously monitor a lot of fights and it is not a fact that at least one of them will meet the conditions, the odds are below average – at best 1.5
Summary
If we assume that the considered systems of rates are working and effective, then in order to earn money, you will have to spend all your free time – from 12 hours a day. It is difficult and impossible to work in such a mode for longer than a month.
In addition, when the game bank is small, the time investment is unlikely to pay off. You can spend several hours identifying events and still find nothing.
Most importantly, there is no analysis. It is possible to rely on the coefficients and the movement of the line, but it is inappropriate to do this by the only factors. Motivation, form, statistics, psychology and other points are required for analysis when making a forecast.
