Playing football and tennis equally well in childhood, the young Spaniard decided to devote all his strength to an individual sport, where everything depends on himself, and made the right decision, becoming one of the most titled athletes in history.
And after all, a talented person is talented in everything: Nadal plays golf and poker well, sometimes playing with professionals in these sports areas. And now there is only one thing left to know: how to successfully place bets on matches with the participation of Rafael Nadal.
Content
- Strengths and weaknesses of the athlete
- Features of betting on Nadal
- Grass court matches
- Hard Tournament Bets
- Clay Tournament Bets
- Nadal – Federer
- conclusions
Strengths and weaknesses of the athlete
It is worth highlighting the three most important strengths of the Spaniard:
- From early childhood, Rafa liked to play on clay more and this love carried over to his professional career: it is on the ground that this player is especially dangerous;
- Nadal had a strong right forehand, but from the age of 12, his coach decided to give him a powerful blow with his left hand, and today experts consider the Spaniard a tennis player with the most powerful left forehand in men's tennis, and it turned out that this tennis player can powerfully punch from both hands;
- Incredible endurance – this became possible due to the adherence to clay tournaments from an early age, where powerful physical form decides a lot.
His early career was notable for powerful performances on clay, but then the Spaniard played brightly on other court surfaces. Nadal began to work hard on his serve, which plays one of the decisive roles on hard and, especially, on grass. Thanks to his hard work, Rafa managed to make his serve one of the most formidable, serving the ball halfway to the opponent with high speed, cunning backspin and incredible accuracy.
Read about the importance of service in a tennis match and how to bet on service in a separate article.
All this allows the tennis player to be among the permanent top players for a long time. But at the same time, Nadal has two weaknesses:
- Frequent injuries constantly knock the tennis player off the high pace, which especially influenced the performance in 2015-2016, when a whole stream of injuries “attacked” Rafael, and then he had to gain the necessary condition for a long time;
- If on the ground Nadal has no practically equal rivals, then on hard and especially on the grass he suffers frequent defeats from top rivals, who have these coatings among their favorites: if Djokovic falls into opponents on the grass, the Spaniard will most likely lose if the Serb is be in good shape.
Rafa walked very well in 2018 at Wimbledon on grass, until he faced Djokovic in the semifinals, which led to the elimination.
Features of betting on Nadal
The results of previous sparring sessions can tell a lot about a tennis player.
It is worth noting how little Rafa plays on the grass, literally 4-6 sparrings, sometimes skipping grass tournaments altogether. The presented results show how Nadal sometimes plays more on clay than on hard during the season, sometimes losing on his favorite surface only once a year.
Grass court matches
Herbal competitions last a little over a month, they begin in early June immediately after the French Open, tennis players hold literally 2-3 tournaments and take part in Wimbledon.
This is how the Spaniard played on the grass in 2017, having played only two sparring matches in front of Wimbledon itself.
2018 was exactly the same scenario.
If at Wimbledon Nadal comes across not the most difficult opponents, he outplayes them. You should not look at the frequent dry results 3: 0, often the victory in the set is given with great difficulty.
It is difficult to place bets in such sparrings: a Spaniard can either defeat a less-rated opponent in games or outplay with great difficulty
A different picture unfolds when a strong grassy contender from the TOP-10 gets. Bookmakers, by inertia, given the high rating of the Spaniard, put him too low a coefficient, which is an obvious bias. This allows you to bet on a positive handicap in games against an opponent.
Here Nadal won the top rival with a difference of three games. Here you can see how the bettors were loading exactly Del Potro, loading his positive handicap, and they did not lose. At F1 (+4.5) the odds were 1.9-2.
To summarize: if in sparring with a top rival on Nadal there is a strongly underestimated coefficient, we bet on a positive handicap of his opponent
Hard Tournament Bets
On hard, the Spaniard plays much better, but again, as soon as a difficult opponent from the TOP-20 gets in, who has this coverage as a favorite, Rafa starts to have serious problems.
Here we need to give one small clarification: at tournaments not from the Grand Slam and Masters 1000 category, Rafael does not give his best, he just trains on them, and in the next top tournament, where you can earn a lot of points and good money, the Spaniard gives all the best. Therefore, in tournaments of the Masters 500 series and, especially, in exhibition tournaments, where the Spaniard plays quite often, it is worth playing against him as soon as a strong hard opponent is encountered.
The rating of a tournament as a whole has a huge impact on the results of matches in it. You can learn more about this in a separate review.
In 2018, the situation is absolutely mirrored. Tournaments designated as “EXHIBITION” are exhibition tournaments where 8 tennis players are invited.
Noteworthy is Nadal's early departure to Acapulco (Mexico), this is a Masters 500 tournament, where Nadal simply kept his playing form in good shape.
Otherwise, Rafa plays in top tournaments. Here, even when he meets a less top rival, you can safely bet on a negative head start.
To summarize: at exhibition and weakly rated tournaments, it makes sense to bet on the positive handicaps of strong hard opponents, at the Masters 1000 and Grand Slam competitions on the negative handicaps of Nadal when playing with a not the most rated opponent.
Clay Tournament Bets
This is the Spaniard's favorite surface, where he tries to play to the maximum.
Nadal plays in clay only at tournaments of the Masters 1000 series and at the “Open Championship of France”, without wasting energy on competitions of a lower rating, with rare exceptions
For this reason, Rafa does his best in every such championship.
And when the Spaniard meets with not the most rated rivals, the bookmakers, although they underestimate the odds for his negative handicap, it is still promising to bet on it.
Only one serve was taken by the opponent, but here at F1 (-7.5) there was a good coefficient in games – 1.9-1.95.
But bookmakers continue to make a terrible mistake: even when Rafa meets top rivals, they also greatly underestimate the odds for his negative handicap, sometimes her bettors are powerfully loaded. All this allows you to put your top rivals on a positive head start.
Even against the then recruited Djokovic, they were powerfully loaded. Nadal outplayed the Serb with a difference of 4 games. Only on F2 (+5) the coefficient was within 2.
It is clear that the Spaniard often outperforms his top opponents, but he no longer crushes them as much as his low-rated rivals. Here you need to closely monitor the odds of the bookmakers: as soon as they overestimate the Spaniard, you have to play against him, in case of underestimation of Rafa – according to him.
Nadal – Federer
One of the most important rivals is the Swiss Roger Federer.
These results show how difficult it is for Nadal to play against Roger on the Swiss's favorite surface – hard. He suffers constant defeats on this surface and even motivation hasn't helped lately. But as soon as the Swiss meets the Spaniard on clay, Federer has no chance of success, a permanent defeat follows.
In 2011 and 2013, there were three face-to-face meetings on clay and all three victories went to Rafa. The Spaniard is very unlucky that he has recently had to meet with his principal rival on the hard.
But in any case, when these two top tennis players play in-person, their current level of play should be taken into account.
conclusions
Keeping in mind that Nadal is the king of the soil and knows how to play powerfully with both hands, knowing some of the features of this tennis player, it remains to competently analyze the matches with his participation and beat the bookmaker over and over again.
