Football Betting
The quotes of the rates in favor of outsiders are high, so many do not even consider them, since they are psychologically incapable of making bets with such odds.
It is more difficult to predict the success of underdogs, however, to make a profit at a distance, sometimes it is enough to show 25-35% of the forecast passability, depending on the average coefficient.
Betting on favorites takes place more often, but one successful deal for an outsider can cover 10 wins with odds of 1.25. In addition, quotes for strong opponents are undervalued, at least due to the huge volume of bets on one outcome.
We discussed how to bet on outsiders in a separate article. Here we will analyze which tournaments are best suited for betting in favor of underdogs.
Content
- Competition format
- Circular format
- Swiss system
- Series of victories
- Olympic system
- Eliminating seeded teams
- Bundesliga
- Submarine
- FA Cup
- RPL
- La Liga
- Serie A
- League 1
- Champions League
- Outcome
Competition format
The tournament system affects the odds, so let's take a look at the main competition formats and see which of them have the best outsiders.
The favorites achieve consistent results in longer tournaments. Outsiders tend to perform well in short-term competitions.
Circular format
Each team meets with each, usually at home and away. The system is common in many championships, mainly football (Premier League, Primera, Bundesliga, Serie A, RPL, Portuguese championship).
Swiss system
It resembles the previous format, but the number of tours is less. Not all teams meet each other. For example, there may be 30 participants in the table, but they will play only 3 matches. The system is used in chess and sometimes in esports.
Series of victories
In the competition, the opponent needs to win a certain number of victories, depending on how many wins the series lasts. Only victory counts. The result doesn't matter. The system is used in the NBA playoffs, Stanley Cups and Gagarin Cups.
Olympic system
Playoffs or Elimination Matches – a competitor stops fighting after being defeated. Examples are the Euro and World Cup playoffs, NFL.
Eliminating seeded teams
The format is used to ensure that strong competitors do not compete in the early stages of the tournament. To apply the system, an official rating of teams or athletes is required. Most often, the format is found in tennis, so only the strongest players usually get to the decisive stages of the competition.
David Appleton of Newcastle University conducted a statistical study comparing the 5 most common competition systems to determine how they affect the likelihood of winning.
The information in the table is derived from 10,000 simulation models.
| Format | Favorite win rate (8 participants) | Favorite win rate (16 participants) | ||
| H * | Non-h ** | H * | Non-h ** | |
| Circular | 31% | 61% | thirty% | 62% |
| Swiss | 29% | 59% | 21% | 50% |
| Series of victories | 33% | 68% | 26% | 62% |
| Olympic | 27% | 58% | 19% | 51% |
| Seeded participants | 33% | 68% | 26% | 62% |
H – competitions in which the difference in the class of opponents is relatively small, for example, the Champions League.
Non-h – tournaments in which the class of opponents is very different, for example, the FA Cup, where a representative of the Premier League can meet with a club from the country's fourth-fifth most powerful division.
The first thing that immediately becomes noticeable in the table is the relationship between a smaller number of tournament participants (and hence fights) and the likelihood of the favorites' success.
The strongest teams or athletes are more likely to win competitions according to the winning streak system. On the opposite side there are knockout tournaments, which is quite logical, since luck and winning several meetings are enough for a triumph, unlike a championship.
[stextbox id = 'info'] The more fights an outsider has to play, the lower the chances of his long-term success [/ stextbox]
The information we have covered is more related to long-term underdog betting. Now let's analyze the popular tournaments and try to find those in which it is best to bet on the outsider in individual matches.
How to understand that the team is an outsider? We will count the underdog in a football match if the odds for his victory in regular time is more than 4. Only these fights will be counted. For example, if the quotes for the teams are approximately equal or for the success of one of the opponents the odds are below 4, then the event does not go into the statistics.
Bundesliga
In the first round of the German Championship of the 2019/2020 season, 5 matches fit our criteria as a favorite outsider.
Leipzig, Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund won victories, while Fortuna beat Werder (the odds for the victory – 5.1).
We also note the draw between Bavaria and Hertha. Even at X2, the odds are 5.95, but we will still take into account only victories, and we will attribute such an outcome to a defeat, since we are considering a bet on the win of outsiders.
- There are 95 eligible matches per season.
- The number of underdog triumphs is 12.
- The average coefficient is 7.57 (from 4 to 26).
Most of the favorites' misfires happened in the first part of the season. In the German Bundesliga, the team that was third in the last championship can finish in the second half of the table in the new season. Bookmakers, based on the last championship, consider it strong and set low quotes for victory, while the team is already acting weaker and allows the outsider to win.
Submarine
In the English Championship, the favorites regularly take points even from the strongest teams. However, in the 2019/2020 season, the indicators were like this.
Based on the results of 30 rounds of the drawing, 96 events came up under our conditions as a favorite outsider, 14 of which were successful. The average odds are 6.79. If in the Bundesliga they won 11.4% of bets of the total number of eligible matches, then in the Premier League – 13.44%.
Such statistics is due to the fact that Liverpool and Manchester City were almost not inferior, and if misfires did happen, it was mainly in confrontations with the TOP-6 clubs. Besides, knowing that in the Premier League “everyone can beat everyone”, bookmakers do not offer very high odds.
A home victory of the conditional Burnley over Manchester United can be estimated with odds of 4.2, and an away win twice as much – 8.5.
Even for the success of Watford, which was not in optimal shape, in a home game with Liverpool, which at that time had never lost, the odds were 6.75.
FA Cup
At the 1/32 final stage of the FA Cup 2019/2020, there were 5 suitable matches, of which only one was played – the odds were 6.7. The distance is too short, however, the passability is 20%.
RPL
According to the results of 24 rounds of the Russian Championship 2019/2020, Tula's Arsenal were pleased, which in a short period on the road coped with Spartak and CSKA, and defeated Lokomotiv at home. The favorites won, but apart from the Gunners, the outsiders' statistics were improved by Spartak, which has repeatedly failed.
This all adds up to the fact that only statistics cannot be used for forecasting. No matter how suitable a tournament is, it is important to analyze the current position of the teams and track trends.
In total, out of 56 suitable events, 13 played. Average odds – 5.65.
Passage of forecasts – 23.21%.
La Liga
After 30 matches of the Spanish Championship in the 2019/2020 season, there were 90 events with an obvious outsider. The favorites suffered 13 defeats. Percentage of bet entry – 14.44% (average odds – 5.68).
Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atlético do not lose very often, but other favorites are helping out. For example, Sevilla, Athletic and Real Sociedad.
Serie A
After 28 rounds of the Italian championship, there were 94 matches with obvious outsiders. In 13 of them, the favorites were defeated (in 13.83% of cases). The average ratio was 7.47.
The favorites regularly stumbled, especially the volatile Napoli and Milan. Sometimes they were supported by Inter and Atalanta. It is very unprofitable to bet against Juventus.
League 1
The French Championship of the 2019/2020 season ended ahead of schedule, 28 rounds were played. During this segment, only 39 events came up. 7 bets were played with an average odds of 8.27.
In the first 12 rounds PSG lost three times (quotes 9, 15 and 12). Further, Lyon and Marseille sometimes made mistakes. Such indicators in the First League are due to the fact that there is rarely an unconditional favorite in a fight.
Champions League
Qualifying round. At the 1/8 finals (qualification), 7 out of 19 matches played (36.84%). Average quotes – 8.82%. There were many unknown teams here that surprised bookmakers and bettors.
In the quarterfinals of 10 games, only one was successful with odds 4.6.
In the semifinals, the pairs were more even, but out of 4 suitable matches, the outsider won in 3 matches (average odds – 5.97). But in the final round in 5 matches the underdogs did not win.
Group stage. Out of 50 eligible matches, only 5 outsiders have won. The level of the clubs is high, so they rarely lost to obvious underdogs. Average odds of entered bets – 5.76.
Playoffs. Outsiders rarely make it into the playoff round. Even less often, they manage to win.
Outcome
You have learned in which tournament formats it is better to bet on the victory of outsiders. In terms of specific competitions, the Champions League qualification is best suited.
Strong teams sometimes make their way into it, simply unknown to anyone. The conditional champion of Estonia is able to outplay the strongest club in Croatia or Slovenia, which are more visible at home.
Statistics, of course, are useful, but it is necessary to separately consider a specific event, and not rely on this material and blindly bet on the winning of the underdog. The research is designed to figure out which tournaments to look out for first if you want to play against the favorites.
A thorough analysis of each fight will increase the permeability of the predictions, but, on the other hand, a sober mind will save you from betting on outsiders with quotes like 19. On the other hand, you can use safety net in the form of a double chance and a handicap.
